Local homebuilders optimistic about '08

By MELISSA FOLLOWELL
mfollowell@bradenton.com

MANATEE --
David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, has scaled down his expectations for 2008 by nearly 40 percent.
With the struggling economy and meltdown of the mortgage industry, Seiders in a teleconference call Thursday predicted single-family home starts will be back to 1991 levels in 2008, 55 percent below the unnaturally high peak of 2005.
Yet some local builders think the Manatee-Sarasota market is already looking up.
Auctions, foreclosures, short sales, vulture funds and discounted new home prices are part of the reason the move is in a positive direction, they said.
"The bottom has been established," said Jerry Blumberg, co-owner of Gibraltar Homes.
Manatee County native and fourth-generation homebuilder Evelyn Treworgy agrees. "People are in the mood to look now, and they are serious again," she said.
Treworgy, who is building Palma Sola Bay Club in Manatee County, thinks 2008 will be a year for market recovery.
While Seiders' predictions show things starting to look up in 2008, the decline is expected to continue into the first quarter and possibly the second.
"I think we're probably going to be looking at further price declines in 2008 due to excess inventory," Seiders said.
But median home prices have steadily climbed from September to November, according to Manatee's Multiple Listing Service.
With the overall economy slowing in the fourth quarter, Seiders sees a sense of stability creeping into the housing market. While the number of sales were lower than expected across the country, they remained stable, and cancellations on new homes decreased.
"It's hard to be thrilled when we're sitting at a record low, but at least there is stability," Seiders said.
Sales might not have taken off across the country, but local builders saw promise. John Cannon Homes reported five sales last week, making it a record-setting week for the custom homebuilder, said T.J. Nutter, chief operating officer of John Cannon Homes.
John Cannon Homes, along with Gibraltar Homes and other local builders, are approaching 2008 like a normal year, with new models already under construction and set to open in the new year.
"I don't think it's going to be a boom year, but it will be healthy," Blumberg said. "We were the first up, the first to bottom and the first to climb back."